Flat betting, whether horse betting or any other type of betting, is a form of progression. . . However, the topic of this article is a bit controversial: Raising wagers after losses.
Gamblers Ruin is a term that refers to a loss in betting bankroll. It’s not as frightening as it sounds. Although it is something to avoid, it is not the “ruin of the horsebettor”. However, it will keep him from the game until a new bankroll is built.
Gamblers can only ruin themselves by using the “Martingale” method, which doubles up every loss. Gamblers who stick to the even-money bets, such as Roulette, will be at a disadvantage of 1.5 percent. A player who has a large bankroll can make a “Martingale”-style betting system work for several days, weeks or even months.
However, sooner or later, a long and vicious losing streak will occur which will make it impossible for the gambler to place the next wager. This could be because his bankroll is severely depleted or because he lacks the courage to do so.
Example: Let’s say that his starting stake is $5.00 and that he has a losing streak for 15 consecutive days. These are the bets that must be placed to double up on every loss.
5 – 10 – 20 – 40 -80 – 160 – 320 – 640 – 1280 – 2560 – 5120 – 10,240 – 20,480 – 40,960 – 81,920
. . . 16 would cost $163,840 to make his original $5.00 wager and still earn $5.00 profit. !
It is obvious that it is insane.
A 15-race losing streak in horse racing is not uncommon for win-betting, especially if you are betting on higher-paying horses.
If you only played 4-5, 1-1 and 6-5 types to simulate the even money roulette bets a 15-race streak might not happen. A 10 race losing streak is rare. But, hey, how about chasing down a 10 race streak while doubling up to make some profit on your original wager?
You would have a terrible ROI!
However, a player could scale back from the “doubling-up” betting mode. There have been many variations on this theme before.
Look for a horse that has a high winning percentage, such as 35% or more. Flat bet until a losing streak of at least five races has passed. Then, you can start the betting progression. The progression is then repeated until the series has been “cleared”. You can then recover your losses and make a profit.
These visions of the Martingale maniac sweating blood while he stands up to place his next “bridge jumper-sized” bet keep coming back. He is trying to get back to EVEN!
A winning (hit/strike rate) percentage that exceeds 40 (or even 50%) is better. Before you make the next step, be sure that your percentage is stable.
This restricts the approach to show and place betting.
Let’s suppose you have a handicapping system that hits 32% winners at $7.60 per mutuel. Your ROI is around +21%.
The same horse betting could be expected to win or place (pay-to-place) approximately 60% of the times. On average, the place bet would return $3.80. This is how your ROI would look: 60 winning bets out of 100 pay you $3.80. So $228 return on $200 bet = +4% ROI.
There are no great bragging rights here – but a betor could use a progression that would likely boost that ROI enough to make a decent horse racing income – if they wanted. . .
Let’s say that a 60% winning rate means that losing streaks 2 and 3 are fairly common. However, streaks 4 and 5 are rare and streaks 6 and more are uncommon.
After three consecutive losses, the race-bettor would only begin his progression. It is unlikely that he will experience 4 more losses (i.e. 7 straight losses).
Most wins (recoveries) in the betting progression will occur soon after the series has begun. We can increase our bet series quickly at first and then taper back when we realize we are in one of those “blue moons” losing streaks that lasts more than 8 races.
This could represent the next step in the betting process after the third loss.
2 units, 4 units, 6 units, 8 units, 9 units, 10 units, 11units, 12 units.
You lose one point if you reach the second payoff in a series.
– Next, you will drop one for each win.
– If you make a mistake again before clearing the series, you can start the series over from the point you made.
You “clear” a series, which means you are profitable by at least three units (the total loss at the time the series started), and you return to one unit betting.
Here’s an example of a place-bet series:
Let’s say that a $20.00 base unit is used for betting.
Bet #1 = 1 unit/win pays $3.60
2nd Bet = 1 unit/win pays $4.20
Bet #3 = 1 unit / loss
Bet #4 = 1 unit/loss (remember, we are flat betting up to 3).
Losses in a row
Bet #5 = 1 unit / loss
Bet #6 = 2 units/loss (progression has already begun here).
Bet #7 = 4 units/win pays $3.00
Bet #8 = 6 units/win pays $3.00
9th Bet = 4 units/win pays $3.80
Bet #10 = 1 unit/win pays $5.00
This is 6 wins in 10 plays, 60% of our projection. The average payoff was just $3.76, which is slightly less than the projection of $3.80.
Flat betting – This series would have produced this result:
– 10 x $20.00 = $200.00 total race bets
For a total of $226.00, there were returns of $36.00 to $42.00, $42.00 to $30.00, $30.00 to $30.00, $30.00 to $38.00 and $50 respectively.
– A net of $26.00
– ROI = +13 %
The progression was applied and the results were:
– Place 23 units of bets on race events for $460.00
For a total sum of $580.00, the returns were: $36.00; $42.00; $120.00; $180.00 and $152.00 respectively.
A net of $120.00
– ROI = +26%
You may ask yourself, “Why do I play this place progression? Why risk more of my bankroll when I could just bet on the horses to win – flat wager a little more and reap a consistent +21% ROI?”
This method of playing is not recommended by us as it can be more risky. It is possible for a few people to try it.
The player would lose if the bet series ended in a “blue Moon” negative streak.
2 units, 4 or 6 units, 8 units, 9 units, 10, 11 units, 12 units or 62 units. This would amount to $1,240.00 at $20.00
The increased risk would allow the horse race bettor to likely see a solid increase of long-term ROI (it happened in double in this example) and would also spread money into the place pool, helping to protect his win mutuels against the effects of his own wagers.
The “portfolio” would also include this.
This horse betting strategy is not recommended for everyone.
If you are interested, guvencehd.org here is a caveat:
You need to be certain of the consistency of your horse racing hit percentage. If you don’t have any actual results, such as for at least five hundred horse races, this kind of confidence can be misplaced.